Picks YTD: 37-31 (+3.00 units)
327 SMU/Cincinnati UNDER 65
I got 66 (-114) at Bookmaker.
Not only does this appear to be one of the better statistical anomalies on my totals list, but I also think it is a really bad matchup for SMU. The passing game is SMU’s strength and the Bearcats’ have the top coverage unit in the AAC, led by one of the best CB duos in the country (AA Ahmad Gardner and 1st team All-AAC Coby Bryant).
Bryant and Gardner have graded above 80.0 in coverage this year and have combined to allow only 36 catches from 82 targets for 387 yards, one score and six interceptions (Pro Football Focus).
On the flip side, Cincinnati’s top-graded rushing attack (92.4 PFF) will be going against an SMU run defense that ranks third in the conference in team run-defense grade (82.8 PFF).
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